Pakistan's election

Various news headlines today are trumpeting the "defeat' of Musharraf's party in Pakistan. Let's be clear here: Musharraf's power has never rested on the ballot box and never will. Despite his claims leading up to the election, there was never any serious chance his party would "win." Nor is his position in serious jeopardy. He was just reelected to the presidency--which has a fixed term and is not subject to parliamentary confidence--by the parliament elected under even less free conditions in 2002.

Reports also speak of the parties of Bhutto (PPP) and Sharif (the PM Musharraf overthrew in 1999) doing well. But what does that mean? Will the old rival parties work together? They might, but let's wait and see if they do, and what that would mean. Almost certainly it won't mean the 2/3 votes in parliament for impeachment.

No, these elections are not about Musharraf and whether he stays or goes. He stays. They are about creating a weak, fragmented parliament in which Musharaff's party will be able to play the divisions among the "democratic" parties against each other.

I have also heard that the Islamists might not have done well. But I'd expect the final results to show they have done just well enough to remind the US government of what a scary place Pakistan is and why the general-turned-president is so indispensable.

Yeah, this is a cynical view of the elections. I certainly am not expert in Pakistani politics, but I doubt my cynicism is misplaced.