22 February 2008

The vote margin

I reported on the vote percentages of the candidates yesterday. But I did not mention the raw votes. I went back to the spreadsheet and took a closer look, and was genuinely surprised by what I saw.

At the conclusion of Super Tuesday, Obama's cumulative lead in votes was only 87,799. Now it is 911,657. Wow!

Could Clinton overcome it on the 4 March primaries in Texas and Ohio?

The biggest margin in raw votes anyone has had in this campaign in a state so far is in Illinois, where Obama beat Clinton by over 600,000. Even in New York, a bigger state and one won by their Senator, the margin was only 305,000. In California--vastly larger than Texas--her margin, which was over 9 percentage points, amounted to 398,000 votes.

No, I don't think she can overcome this lead. It's over. At least unless the bionic delegates weigh in for her. Or something truly tectonic happens.

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19 February 2008

Those populist Democrats have me raging with anger!

Oh, if only a candidate would not be branded a 'populist' every time she or he suggests that the solution to ordinary people's economic woes is not more markets, more orthodoxy...

As if the cautious oh-so-slightly left-of-right approach being advocated by Obama and Clinton were the reincarnation of Peron.

Of course, Edwards was an angry populist (or is that redundant?).

Then again, the first-linked story tells us the voters are angry. So maybe their politicians should be just a little angry, too. Why leave anger to the populists? Al Gore (whose "people vs. the powerful" seemed oh so populist in its day but so timid now--so says the WaPo at the second link) once called himself a "raging moderate." After all, his father had been way too much of an "absolutist."

So, careful there, Barack and Hillary. This populism, anger thing is dangerous. I know because I keep reading it in the liberal media (or is that redundant?).

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