22 February 2008

The vote margin

I reported on the vote percentages of the candidates yesterday. But I did not mention the raw votes. I went back to the spreadsheet and took a closer look, and was genuinely surprised by what I saw.

At the conclusion of Super Tuesday, Obama's cumulative lead in votes was only 87,799. Now it is 911,657. Wow!

Could Clinton overcome it on the 4 March primaries in Texas and Ohio?

The biggest margin in raw votes anyone has had in this campaign in a state so far is in Illinois, where Obama beat Clinton by over 600,000. Even in New York, a bigger state and one won by their Senator, the margin was only 305,000. In California--vastly larger than Texas--her margin, which was over 9 percentage points, amounted to 398,000 votes.

No, I don't think she can overcome this lead. It's over. At least unless the bionic delegates weigh in for her. Or something truly tectonic happens.

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