21 February 2008

Popular vote update through 19 February contests

Through the primaries and caucuses of 19 February, the cumulative popular-vote standings of the candidates are as follows.

Democrats
49.44 Obama
44.90 Clinton
02.95 Edwards
00.33 Kucinich
00.12 Gravel
02.26 others
(Effective number = 2.24)

Republicans
39.86 McCain
29.45 Romney
20.85 Huckabee
04.63 Paul
05.20 others
(Effective number = 3.40)

Yes, that is right: Obama is closing in on a majority of the popular vote and now leads Clinton by nearly five percentage points. So much for his winning streak resting on small states! Seems there are some Obama voters in the states Clinton is "winning," too. Presumably they also count. Through Super Tuesday (5 Feb.) it was Clinton 46.55, Obama 47.08.

And that's also right: McCain has yet to crack 40% of Republicans, and Huckabee's percentage continues to grow. Through Super Tuesday it was McCain 38.32, Romney 32.56, Huckabee 18.99. Since Romney dropped out, Huckabee's vote percentage has grown more than McCain's.

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